Narrowing crop yield gaps in Ethiopia under current and future climate: A model-based exploration of intensification options and their trade-offs with the water balance

In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia (CRV), actual productivity most cereals is less than 3 t ha−1 associated with low input use and poor crop management. After calibrating validating Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) using experimental data, we explored prioritized promising intensification options for rainfed maize wheat that enable to narrow prevailing yield gaps in CRV, quantified trade-offs water balance gross margins. We set up a factorial simulation experiment combining Genetic x Environment Management factors influence at field scale simulate components under current future climate scenarios (pessimistic scenario mid-century). Varietal selection nitrogen (N) fertilization were important contributing gap closure. Although yields maximized N application rates 250 kg−1 soils varieties, maximum margin efficiency (WUE) attained lower rates, small reduction compared maximum. There was trade-off between increased absolute through transpiration, while per kg product decreased. However, location-specific allow producing least 80% water-limited potential (Yw) resulted high efficiencies as well favorable cost-benefit ratios. Climate change projected it advanced maturity, result decreased drainage soil evaporation across all variety, location management combinations both crops. reduced by 15–25% 2–30% maize. conclude locally-calibrated APSIM model could be used derive key lessons from genetic, environment interactions, generate information on sustainable pathways combine narrowing maximizing WUE